This weekend, Democratic voters in New York City will begin casting early ballots for their party’s mayoral primary. Since New York is overwhelmingly liberal, the winner will probably end up mayor of America’s largest city. The victor will command the nation’s most well-funded police and education departments—and a prominent bully pulpit, as President Trump continues to publicly clash with Democratic mayors across the country.

The mayor of New York is an instant celebrity. The post, as always, has no shortage of aspirants. But this year’s race is an especially weird one.

The candidates

Eric Adams

The incumbent, Eric Adams, is a Democrat—but he’s not running in the Democratic primary. Instead, he’s filed as an Independent, opting to compete in the general election against both Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and whoever wins the Democratic race.

It’s not hard to see why: Adams is extremely unpopular. Indicted on corruption charges last year and beset by scandals, Adams drew close to Donald Trump and was rewarded when Trump’s Justice Department dropped the charges initially brought by a Biden-appointed prosecutor. Though Adams may have avoided prison, his political fortunes have dimmed. Democrats are done with him, and he’s a long shot for the November election.

Andrew Cuomo

The favorite to replace Adams is another scandal-scarred executive: Andrew Cuomo. The former governor of New York resigned in 2021 after he was accused of sexual harassment by nearly a dozen women. (Cuomo denied the charges.) Now he’s seeking redemption—and a new job.

The polls show Cuomo with a strong lead, thanks to superior name recognition and voters’ desire for executive experience. He was widely celebrated for steering New York through the pandemic, though his administration was later accused of undercounting deaths in Covid-ravaged nursing homes. (He also took a $5 million advance to write a Covid memoir in 2020, as thousands of New Yorkers were still dying.) Trump’s DOJ has since opened an investigation into Cuomo for allegedly lying to Republicans in Congress during testimony about his pandemic response.

Despite these attacks, Cuomo’s standing remains firm. He’s backed by major unions and prominent politicians, and a super PAC supporting him—funded by business titans like Barry Diller and Bill Ackman—has raised $10 million so far, dwarfing rival efforts. Cuomo has campaigned on backing the police, supporting Israel—an appeal to the many Jewish voters in New York—and fixing a city he claims has spun out of control under Adams. Though the overall economic indicators of New York are strong, and violent crime is on a steep decline from its pandemic-era peak (in 2025, the city is on pace for the fewest murders in its recorded history), many New Yorkers are still wary of crime and concerned about the future. Housing is increasingly unaffordable and homelessness is a persistent challenge. Cuomo believes he’s the man to fix it all.

Zohran Mamdani

Cuomo’s top challenger is state assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. Whereas Cuomo is a highly experienced moderate (or even conservative) Democrat, Mamdani is a 33-year-old democratic socialist who won his first race in 2020. Mamdani began the primary last fall polling at the bottom but surged into second place earlier in the year, gaining popularity on social media and enlivening younger voters with his support for freezing rents on rent-stabilized apartments (which make up half the city’s rental stock), making buses free, and implementing universal child care.

If elected, Mamdani would be New York’s first Muslim and South Asian mayor. His natural charisma has attracted a genuine fan base, and he recently won a high-profile endorsement from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Cuomo has taken aim at Mamdani for his past support of defunding the police and his outspoken advocacy for Palestinians. (Mamdani supports the BDS movement and has previously identified as an anti-Zionist.) Mamdani has fired back, casting Cuomo as the status quo candidate, and has promised to fight antisemitism in New York.

Adrienne Adams, Brad Lander, and Scott Stringer

While Cuomo and Mamdani are the front-runners, New York’s ranked-choice voting system could make the race competitive for three other candidates polling in the single digits: City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, City Comptroller Brad Lander, and former City Comptroller Scott Stringer. None of them have especially excited voters, but all represent a center-left constituency that could be key in this election. All three are veterans of city government, and all three have been aggressive Cuomo critics. Given how many voters are unenthused about Cuomo but concerned about Mamdani’s lack of experience, this middle lane may be well-positioned to pick up second- and third-choice votes.

Under New York’s ranked-choice system, voters can choose up to five candidates in order of preference. If no one wins an outright majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and those ballots are redistributed to voters’ next choices; the process continues until one candidate crosses 50%. This style of voting rewards candidates who appear on more voters’ ballots, form alliances, and are generally less polarizing. And Cuomo is polarizing—though if he runs strongly enough, it won’t matter.

Of the lower-polling candidates, Adrienne Adams (of no relation to the mayor) may have the best chance to rise. She represents Black middle-class neighborhoods in Queens where Cuomo is also popular, and has the potential to appeal to moderates and progressives alike. And she is backed by Letitia James, the popular attorney general. Adams’s challenge is getting her name out there: she entered the race late, in March, and has only just qualified for the city’s public matching funds system. In contrast, Mamdani has been campaigning since October, and Cuomo has long been a familiar face for New Yorkers.

When will we know?

The election will be held on June 24, but the race may not be settled that day—the Board of Elections could take several weeks to tabulate the ranked votes. Four years ago, Eric Adams finished well ahead of the field but nearly lost once the ranked-choice tabulation began; he won by fewer than 10,000 votes as other candidates were eliminated.

Cuomo has the best chance to triumph, but the race is still open. And depending on what happens in the primary, the general election could become surprisingly competitive. Cuomo has already filed to run as an Independent in the event that someone like Mamdani wins the Democratic nomination. Meanwhile, the progressive Working Families Party could support Mamdani or another candidate against Cuomo if he wins the primary, assuming his victory is narrow.

In short: it should be an interesting summer.

Editor’s note: For more on the NYC mayoral race, see:

• The New York Editorial Board
  for wide-ranging, in-depth interviews with the candidates

• Silver Bulletin
  for analysis of ranked-choice voting (Can anyone beat Cuomo? And is it Zohran?)

• Feed Me
  for reader-sourced questions on topics both substantial (What are your plans to keep New York affordable for the working class?) and fun (Best slice in the city?)

• New York Magazine
  for out-of-left-field analysis of the candidates (Ranking Mayoral Candidates on Real Estate Alone) and lightning round interviews

• Very Serious
  for opinionated hot takes (The New York Mayor’s Race Sucks)